Recent crime trends and what they mean

The northwest Bronx saw a spike in felony assaults in the first seven months of the year – a surge for which balmy weather spells that drove people outdoors seem partly to blame – while rape attacks declined after an inexplicable rise a year ago, Deputy Inspector Terence O’Toole, the commanding officer of the 50th precinct, told The Press. 

In the first seven months of the year, the northwest Bronx area covered by the precinct saw a total of 550 cases of major crimes – murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny and car theft. This is up a notch from 527 cases during the same period in 2015, according to police data. 

Rape attacks declined more than 64 percent to five cases in January-July this year, compared to 14 cases during the same period in 2015 – a decline Capt. O’Toole attributes in part to increased police patrols in his precinct, although he concedes this may not be the sole reason, nor do the police have a complete explanation for a spike in rape attacks last year. 

“For whatever reason, it seemed that last year, there were a lot of rapes. I don’t know why,” Capt. O’Toole said. A more significant aspect may be that many of last year’s cases involved what police call “stranger rape.” This type of rape, when the victim is attacked by a complete stranger, is generally less frequent than rape by a violent household member or than what is commonly known as date rape. 

“Last year, it seemed we had … a few more stranger rapes than usual,” Capt. O’Toole said in an Aug. 4 interview. “For the most part, that’s a kind of strange thing.”

Jon Shane, a professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said that “generally, there are no answers for short spikes like that.” Too many additional factors may come into play. 

“Crime is an extremely difficult thing to explain, because of the human phenomenon that’s involved,” Mr. Shane told The Press. “And the human phenomenon is subject to the vagaries of human will. But why do some people commit crimes one day but not another day? Who knows? There are plenty of reasons why.” 

Still, police presence on the streets seems to bring down the crime rate. The 50th precinct has increased the number of its officers patrolling the area: Now, at least 16 officers are on patrol at any given time, and on most days, their number is about 20, Capt. O’Toole said. 

“When there’s more patrols, [officers] are not running from job, to job, to job – they have a little more time to do police work, look at people, talk to people, things like that,” he said. 

The force is beefed up by about 100 officers from all over the city who pass through the 50th every day to visit its medical division – providing 100 extra pairs of eyes on the lookout for any suspicious activities, the police commander said. 

Police believe that comparing month-to-month or year-to-year crime rates falls short of providing an accurate picture of trends, though they have yet to come up with a better measure. 

Mr. Shane agrees: “The numbers alone tell you nothing,” he said. 

Weather and demographic shifts are all reasonable explanations, but the list of possible factors that affect crime rates does not end there, he said, proceeding to enumerate other variables that may influence the outcome. 

“How many arrests did they make, how many summonses did they issue, how many cars did they stop, how many people did they stop and frisk, how many calls for service did they have, how many bar fights did they have … how many people were released from prison that day, how many warrants were served,” Mr. Shane said. 

For what the numbers are worth, however, felony assault, which marked a 5-percent increase citywide, spiked 52.5 percent in the 50th precinct to 93 cases in the first seven months of this year, from 61 cases during the same period in 2015. 

In the Bronx overall, the numbers were up about 14 percent to 3,543 cases so far this year, compared to 3,097 cases during the same period in 2015, according to police data. The 49th precinct – a generally low-crime area, like the 50th – saw a staggering 74-percent increase, reaching 167 cases in the first seven months of the year, compared to 96 cases during the same period last year. 

Much of the assault rate increase in the 50th precinct was due to a spike at the start of the year. Many of the cases involved bar fights – “there’s not much we can do about that,” Capt. O’Toole said – while the weather that drove people to bars at the start of 2016 may have been partly to blame. 

“Last winter was extremely cold, extremely snowy, people stayed indoors,” he said. “This winter was balmy – I mean, Christmas Eve was 83 degrees or something. It was hot. People go out, and that’s the problem. Negative or positive, interactions occur.” 

In an opposite numerical trend, the decline in rape cases in areas covered by the 50th precinct took place even as rape attacks increased citywide 6.5 percent to 847 cases in the first seven months of this year, from 795 cases during the same period in 2015. Some parts of the city saw much sharper increases. 

In the 49th precinct in the Bronx – an area in the east of the borough that is demographically similar to the 50th precinct – rape attacks rose nearly 31 percent to 17 cases so far this year, from 13 cases during the same period in 2015. In the Bronx overall, 193 cases of rape were registered through July 31, 2016 – the exact same number as in the first seven months of 2015. 

All of the 50th precinct’s 14 rape cases from last year have been solved and the suspects have been arrested, Capt. O’Toole said. 

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