If crime is down, why don’t we feel safe?

Over the past few weeks, I joined fellow members of the Benjamin Franklin Reform Democratic Club in the most time-honored Bronx tradition of knocking on doors to get local Democratic candidates -- like Councilman Eric Dinowitz -- on the ballot for the upcoming primary election.

We knocked on thousands of doors and I had the chance to speak with well over a hundred of our neighbors. The conversations were wide-ranging, but one thing kept coming up again and again that really bothered me -- people don’t feel safe and many think things are getting worse.

Sometimes I feel that way too. But here’s the thing, the data tells a different story.

Citywide, crime is trending downward. In 2023, violent crime declined about 3 percent and murders dropped 12 percent. By late 2024, the city logged nine straight months of overall crime reductions. Subway crimes, shootings and most other serious offenses are back to or nearing pre-pandemic levels. This is not to minimize the very serious crimes that still happen, like last Monday’s mid-day assault at the Spuyten Duyvil Metro-North station. There’s more we could do to bring down crime rates, but the overarching trend is positive.

At the 50th Precinct, which covers our lovely corner of the Bronx, the numbers are even better. As of March, major crimes are down 27 percent compared to this time last year and robberies have fallen by nearly a third. Car thefts have dropped by nearly half. Even our local scourge of tire and rim thefts appear to be subsiding, according to a recent report from the NYPD to Community Board 8.

And yet, that uneasy feeling lingers. Why? Because while crime is down, disorder is up.

I’m talking about the things that don’t always make the NYPD crime blotter but still make people anxious: the graffiti that suddenly seems everywhere, the trash on our sidewalks, the people jumping turnstiles or sneaking on the bus without paying, the aggressive panhandling, the abandoned cars and broken-down RVs, the reckless driving of some scooter and e-bike riders and that ever-present haze of weed smoke.

My wife recently saw someone light up a crack pipe in her subway car on the way to work. A New York moment? Sure. Comforting? Not so much.

Whether or not disorder causes more serious crime has been hotly debated among academics and criminologists for decades. However, one thing is quite clear: disorder makes people feel unsafe. It breeds fear. Empirical research and opinion polls back this up, as do the many conversations I’ve had with our neighbors recently. So how do we make people feel safe, if even falling crime rates don’t do it?

We’re not helpless bystanders here. There’s a lot we can do locally and we should find that empowering.

Beautifying and cleaning up our neighborhood is in our hands. We can plant trees, fix broken playground equipment, remove graffiti and bring a little more pride to our streets and parks. Councilman Dinowitz has been very active in this work, as have local organizations like KRVC, the Riverdale Main Streets Alliance and the Van Cortlandt Park Alliance. They have regular volunteering events and could certainly use more volunteers.

We can also support programs that address homelessness and mental health through outreach, not just enforcement. Take the city’s B-HEARD pilot, for example. It sends social workers, instead of police, to respond to certain mental health 911 calls. It’s a smart, compassionate approach and we should make sure it’s being consistently employed in our area.

And we can advocate for common-sense subway safety measures that work, like the unarmed MTA security guards recently deployed to some stations, which have measurably reduced fare-beating and discouraged disorderly conduct.

Finally, we can insist on transparency. NYPD CompStat reports and crime maps are not always the easiest to read and understand. Other cities like Baltimore have created easy-to-read public dashboards that show up-to-date data about crime and public safety. Why not do that here? Let’s make sure our neighbors have the facts and not just what’s swirling around on Facebook or Nextdoor.

The truth is we can play a meaningful role in shaping what our neighborhood feels like. When we act -- whether it’s cleaning up a block, supporting outreach efforts or speaking up for smart local solutions -- we can make a difference. Even if the numbers say we’re safe, let’s make sure it feels that way, too.

Ben Jackson

Democratic Party District Leader for New York’s 81st Assembly District.